The price of ADA is falling, but the whales continue to pile up

Cardano’s native token, ADA, has been under pressure for months. Despite this, deep-pocketed holders continued to build their positions. Their steady buying suggests that behind-the-scenes confidence hasn’t waned, even as the broader market trend remains weak.

Whale activity intensifies amid ADA price decline

Data shared on February 24 by blockchain analytics firm Santiment shows that major ADA holders have been quietly expanding their stacks for half a year. Addresses with 100,000 to 100 million ADA accumulated an additional 819.4 million tokens during this period. At current valuations, this equates to roughly $213.9 million and represents a 1.6% increase in the total supply held by this cohort.

As a result, these main wallets now hold about 25.36 billion ADA. This equates to almost 70% of the circulating supply, showing that the majority of available ADAs are with large investors.

This accumulation developed while the market value of ADA plummeted. During the same six-month window, the price fell more than 71% from $0.90 to $0.26. Such a difference between price action and whale behavior often attracts attention. Large investors tend to increase exposure during downturns, viewing weaker prices as entry points. By pulling tokens out of active circulation, the whales tighten the available supply, which can add to the upward pressure if demand stabilizes or improves.

Grayscale Lifts ADA Allowance

In addition to whale activity, another institutional signal emerged. Grayscale Investments adjusted the composition of its Smart Contract Fund, increasing ADA’s stake to 20.12% from 19.50%. The update means that Cardano now represents more than a fifth of the fund’s portfolio.

Portfolio reallocations by established asset managers are closely watched in the digital asset space. The increased allocation does not guarantee price appreciation, but it does reflect a degree of conviction at the institutional level. Combined with chain accumulation, this adds another layer to the larger ADA placement story.

Technical structure still points below

Despite these supportive factors, the daily ADA chart continues to show a broader downtrend. The market was constantly printing lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bear structure. The recent recovery from around $0.25 provided short-term relief but did not change the overall pattern.

Currently, the price is hovering near the middle Bollinger band, which corresponds to the 20-day moving average, which acts as short-term resistance. Narrowing Bollinger Bands signals declining volatility – a pattern that often precedes strong price action. However, the indicator does not reveal the direction of the breakout, only that a move is imminent.

Momentum remains slightly negative as ADA trades below the mid-range and the $0.30 threshold. A decisive close above $0.30 could put pressure towards the $0.33-$0.36 range, creating a potential relief rally. Conversely, failure to hold the $0.25 support level could extend the downtrend and expose further targets at $0.23 and possibly $0.20.

For now, ADA appears to be locked in a consolidation within a broader bearish framework. The whale rally and institutional portfolio adjustments suggest underlying confidence, but the chart still needs confirmation. A break in either direction will determine whether a quiet rally by the major holders lays the groundwork for a recovery or unfolds within an ongoing downtrend.

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The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.