Rare BTC Gold Divergence Stuns Analysts

While gold is trading near its all-time highs, Bitcoin remains in the background. This deviation is attracting the attention of some analysts. According to recent analysis, the asset would appear undervalued compared to the precious metal today. A statistical gap that preceded significant phases of market recovery in the past. This signal revives the debate about the relative appreciation of Bitcoin against gold.

The statistical indicator indicates a significant underestimation

Analyst and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow estimates that Bitcoin would be 24% to 66% below its theoretical value compared to gold or the global money supply while the flagship bear market continues. Indicates that the asset is currently “underrated” according to this metric.

The analysis is based on the Z-score of the Bitcoin/Gold (BTC/XAU) ratio, which is an indicator measuring the deviation of the ratio from its historical average. The key points highlighted are as follows:

• The z-score of the BTC/XAU ratio is currently negative, close to -2, a level historically associated with undervaluation phases;

• In March 2020, during the shock of COVID-19, a comparable level preceded a significant increase in Bitcoin in the following months;

• A similar signal was also observed at the end of 2022, after the FTX crash, before a significant market recovery.

These precedents are cited as examples where a significant statistical gap between bitcoin and gold was followed by a bull phase. The indicator is not a prediction, but reveals a measurable gap relative to historical trends in the ratio between the two assets.

A market context dominated by gold dynamics

The interpretation comes as gold trades near all-time highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and the search for safe-haven assets. The total capitalization of the precious metal is estimated at about 30.6 trillion dollars, compared to about 1.760 billion for Bitcoin. The valuation gap therefore remains significant between the two assets, often compared in terms of their potential role as store of value.

The analysis also points out that the current momentum does not yet reflect a clear rally in Bitcoin, despite the observed statistical signal. The Z-score indicates the deviation from the historical average without being a guarantee of an immediate turnaround. The indicator is based on past correlations and the relative performance between two assets, the cycles of which may vary depending on macroeconomic conditions.

The gap between bitcoin and gold thus revives a central debate: that of the relative valuation of safe-haven assets in the digital age. If historical precedents show that similar levels of undervaluation have been followed by significant recovery, each cycle retains its specifics. Investors will therefore have to decide between statistical data and macroeconomic caution in an environment where global liquidity, interest rates and geopolitical tensions continue to affect capital flows.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.