Mid-term elections could start a new Bitcoin bull cycle

The US mid-term elections could breathe new life into the crypto and stock markets and give Bitcoin its wings back. At least that’s according to Binance Research in a report published this week. Before reaching that point, however, the path remains strewn with geopolitical pitfalls.

US Election, Bitcoin’s Historic Catalyst

The US mid-term elections scheduled for November 3, 2026 could play a key role for financial markets. According to a recent Binance Research report, these election cycles have historically marked the beginning of bullish phases for risk assets, including Bitcoin and stocks.

The explanation is based on a simple factor: the disappearance of political uncertainty. In the months leading up to the vote, investors often take a cautious stance. However, once the results are known and the balance sheet of Congress is clarified, the markets generally regain a more favorable climate for investment.

Historical data reveals. As of 2013, the twelve months following the midterm elections yielded, on average:

• +19% for the S&P 500
• +54% for bitcoins

This phenomenon fits into the logic of American macroeconomic cycles. As the political environment becomes more predictable, liquidity will return to risk assets. In the context of Bitcoin gradually establishing itself as an institutional asset backed by ETFs, banks and certain sovereign strategies, the impact could be even more pronounced.

Previous cycles illustrate this pattern. Mid-term years like 2014, 2018 or 2022 often saw big corrections in the crypto market. However, the following period was characterized by strong recovery phases.

For Binance analysts, the year after the election could thus become “the most favorable period of the cycle.”

Geopolitics and oil, risks weighing on the market

In the short term, however, Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on a more immediate factor: geopolitics. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the United States, Israel and Iran, are currently fueling considerable volatility in global markets.

The price of oil briefly hit $95 a barrel after attacks targeting energy infrastructure in the region. Some Iranian officials are even mentioning the possibility of $200 a barrel if the military escalation continues.

This surge in energy puts pressure on risk assets. Historically, when energy prices rise, investors favor traditional safe havens.

However, some players in the crypto sector see this situation as an opportunity. Gracy Chen, CEO of the Bitget platform, believes that cryptocurrencies could benefit from an amplified effect if liquidity conditions stabilize.

According to her, Bitcoin’s high beta profile means its upside potential could surpass that of stocks once political uncertainty dissipates.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is holding up. At the time of writing, it is trading at $70,460 and is caught in a consolidation zone where short-term liquidity flows dictate every move.

Between political cycles and geopolitical tensions, the crypto market is going through a pivotal period. The midterm elections could offer the catalyst investors have been waiting for. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could enter a new bullish phase. For now, however, the barrel of oil still rules.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.