7:14 AM ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Rockets rain down on Isfahan. Tehran burns, Tel Aviv holds its breath, Dubai looks away. While the real world is shaking, another world is moving. That is, crypto bettors. At Kalshi, at Polymarket, people speculate about death, about war, about the brink of chaos. The opportunity is too good to inflate accounts. But the American platform only clipped the wings of its traders. And the anger rumbles wildly through the nets.
In short
- Kalshi settled his market on Khamenei’s departure at the last price before announcing his death, in line with his policy.
- The platform returned all fees and compensated open positions after the death of the Iranian leader.
- Six traders at Polymarket are suspected of insider trading after pocketing $1 million before the strikes.
- The suspicious accounts were created in February and funded hours before the explosions in Tehran.
Kalshi faces a poisoned jackpot: what if cryptocurrencies had to choose sides?
The announcement falls on Sunday, brutal: Ayatollah Khamenei has joined his ancestors. The day before, Tehran was shaken by Israeli-American strikes. On Kalshi, a loyal friend from Coinbase, the market boomed: “Ali Khamenei became the supreme leader.” The probability just increased to 68%.
The big problem: the platform, regulated in the United States, strictly prohibits “death markets.” No bets on the death of a person, even a supreme leader. Its rules are specific: in case of death, the contract is settled at the last price before notification. Period.
Tarek Mansour, founder, takes on X:
We do not list markets directly related to death. When the potential consequences include death, we design rules to prevent people from profiting from death.
The intention is noble, even puritanical. But in practice it really turns around. Punters opened positions after the death announcement, betting on a rapid rise. It ends with widespread losses. The crypto community rages, accuses, insults.
On social media, Kalshi is called a thief, a killer, a dream breaker. In principle, the platform does not make a budget, but the fire threatens to consume everything.
Deaths, suspicions and millions: the war of betting platforms turns into a nightmare
Kalshi does not fold but opens the check book. The founder details the forced generosity: full refund of all market fees, generous compensation for open positions after death, payout of pre-death positions at last price. A desperate attempt to buy social peace.
We are refunding all fees for this market. If you held a position before Khamenei’s death, you will be paid the last price before his death. If you held a position after that, we will refund you your share in full.
Tarek Mansour
Yet this generosity falls flat in a poisoned climate. A few weeks ago, six traders on Polymarket quietly made $1 million by betting on strikes against Iran. Their accounts, created in February, were funded hours before the explosions in Tehran.
Suspicions of insider trading, talk of leaks from US intelligence circles. Kalshi is not targeted, but the shadow of “too accurate predictions” hangs over the entire profession. By trying to play the shell-shocked virgins, the New York platform has drawn the ire of traders. A doubt remains. And so does the smell of sulfur.
Kalshi-Polymarket: the war of numbers
- 68%: probability shown by Kalshi just before Khamenei’s death;
- $1 million: suspicious profits of six Polymarket traders;
- 100%: rate of refund of fees and losses of positions in Kalshi;
- A few hours: the time lag between the suspected bets and the explosions in Tehran;
- $66,570: the price of Bitcoin at the time of writing.
Between Kalshi and Polymarket, this is not just a tussle of ethics. It’s a merciless trade war. At the end of December 2025, Kalshi crushed its competitor with a record weekly volume of $2.3 billion. Two crypto betting giants are waging a fierce battle. Against a background of rockets, death and green bills. The next round promises to be bloody.
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The blockchain and crypto revolution is in full swing! And on the day the effects are felt by the most vulnerable economy in this world, I will say against all hope that I had something to do with it
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
