16:05 ▪
4
min read ▪ by
Gold sends a more contrasting signal than it seems. Behind the classic image of a safe haven, the market today shows a clear divide between retail investors who continue to buy through ETFs and institutions who have started to lighten their positions.
In short
- Retail investors still drive demand for gold through ETFs, BIS says.
- Institutions have been reducing their exposure for several months.
- A strong dollar and leverage explain much of the recent correction.
A market driven by the crowd, not the big players
While Bitcoin continues to be dissected, sometimes compared to gold, sometimes dismissed as a mere technological asset, the precious metals market is already revealing a much more telling scenario. The latest quarterly BIS study shows that the rush to gold and silver funds was mainly driven by retail investors.
On the other hand, the institutions did not follow the movement with the same enthusiasm. They preferred to remain cautious or even moderate their positions. The BIS chart itself summarizes this division: on the one hand, retail flows rise sharply until the first quarter of 2026; on the other hand, the institutional curve is gradually falling into the red.
This changes the interpretation of the market. When Wall Street buys with conviction, the upswing often seems cleaner, steadier and more sustainable. When mostly retail investors are pushing, the dynamic becomes more nervous. It can continue, but it also becomes more fragile.
So the BIS is not just describing a new gold rush. It shows a market where enthusiasm has been concentrated in readily available vehicles, especially ETFs, with more speculative behavior than meets the eye.
Why the rise eventually stalled
The bank explains that the surge in gold and especially silver continued after strong momentum in 2025, before suddenly reversing in late January and February 2026. Silver even fell by around 30% in a single session at the end of January, which the BIS presents as its biggest daily decline since the 1980s.
This turnaround is not explained by fundamentals alone. BIS highlights the amplifying effect of leveraged ETFs, margin calls and trend strategies. In short, the market simply did not correct itself. It was falling faster because part of its internal mechanism was pushing to sell at the wrong time.
This is a critical point. Many investors buy gold for its reputation for stability. Yet when exposure goes through listed products, sometimes leveraged, stability can be deceiving. Metal is metal, but the investment channel changes everything.
The dollar took control
Another key factor: gold’s recent decline came as the dollar strengthened and expectations for a rate cut in the United States cooled. The BIS itself notes that the decline in precious metals coincides with a change in perception of the dollar and the US currency trajectory.
This link remains visible this week. Reuters reports that gold fell to its lowest level in more than a month on March 19, penalized by a strong dollar and a perceived dovish Fed, despite a tense geopolitical context that would normally support the yellow metal.
In other words, the old “crisis equals automatic rise in gold” reflex is no longer enough. In 2026, the market also follows the US currency, real rates and the very structure of the flows. When the dollar dominates, gold can lose momentum even with geopolitical tensions. Gold remains a watched, sought after, sometimes overbought asset. But when the crowd is buying as the big players are selling, it’s not enough to just look at the metal. You have to watch who really controls the market.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our “Read and Earn” program! Earn points for every article you read and get access to exclusive rewards. Register now and start reaping the benefits.
Lydia, a teacher and IT engineer, discovers Bitcoin in 2022 and dives into the world of cryptocurrencies. It popularizes complex topics, deciphers Web3 challenges and defends the vision of an open, inclusive and decentralized digital future.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
