19:05 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
For some crypto bettors, the peak moment for Bitcoin would not be immediate, but focused on the end of 2026. On Polymarket, December remains the favorite month with a probability of 16-17% ahead of October and November.
In short
- Crypto bettors mostly see Bitcoin accelerating at the end of 2026.
- The history of Q4 supports this idea, but 2025 has shown that nothing is automatic.
- In the short-term, BTC remains below a key technical threshold and the market awaits real confirmation.
December takes the lead in expectations
Prediction markets see Bitcoin ending 2026 stronger than it started. Finbold, relying on Polymarket, shows that December is still leading the dance, with October and November close behind. The message is clear. Traders aren’t really buying the idea of a big surge in the spring. Rather, they are watching the last turn of the year.
This year-end bias is also evident in the volumes observed on monthly contracts. December was among the most watched months, but November saw even higher volume, reflecting several months of building conviction, not on a single isolated bet. In short, Bitcoin is not just aiming for a jump. An upward window between autumn and winter is beginning to emerge.
However, nuance must be maintained. Polymarket is not a crystal ball. It’s a belief thermometer. The platform also notes that prices reflect implied probabilities coming from buyers and sellers risking real capital, with over $605,000 already traded in this specific market. This makes the signal interesting, but not infallible.
Seasonality supports the scenario without guaranteeing it
Why does this year-end bet come back so often? Because bitcoin history is clearly leaning towards the fourth quarter. Data obtained from CoinGlass shows that Q4 is the strongest quarter in a long time with a historical average of around 77% to 85% depending on the calculations highlighted by various market publications.
In this chart, October and November often weigh more than December. This is important because the “December explosion” narrative is too simplistic. In fact, pressure is often prepared earlier. A post-summer pick-up, portfolio repositioning, and a resurgence in institutional activity sometimes create momentum that then spills over into the end of the year.
But the seasonal argument is flawed and recent. The fourth quarter of 2025 broke the myth of an automatically euphoric fourth quarter. Bitcoin is down 23%, far from its historical average. In other words, past models remain useful for reading the market, not for imposing fate. When macro, liquidation and risk aversion dominate, seasonality moves into the background.
The current price of Bitcoin does not yet confirm the euphoria
In the short term, the chart remains much cooler than the story. As of April 1, 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $68,331, with an intraday high of $69,170. The market is recovering, yes, but it still hasn’t really regained the $70,000 zone. This detail matters because true sustainable recovery often needs to recapture simple thresholds before re-igniting the bullish imagination.
The technical picture therefore remains divided. Bitcoin remains slightly below its 50-day moving average, set at $69,191, and far from its 200-day moving average, around $91,046. This does not indicate a broken market, but even less does it indicate a market that has embarked on a clean and clear rise.
Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI is hovering around 48 as per the same reading. It is a neutral level. There is neither extreme panic nor overwhelming euphoria. In short, the markets are betting on a BTC explosion at the end of 2026, but the price still needs proof for now. The script exists. It just hasn’t taken off in the rankings yet.
Maximize your Cointribune experience with our “Read and Earn” program! Earn points for every article you read and get access to exclusive rewards. Register now and start reaping the benefits.
Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been constantly researching the topic. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all developments focused on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently produce high-quality work that reflects the state of the industry as a whole.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
