Bitcoin: Markets bet 70% on year-end drop below $55,000

The market is starting to retest the strength of Bitcoin’s rebound. Prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are now assigning a high probability of BTC falling below $55,000 in 2026, while US spot bitcoin ETFs are plunging back into the red. Such a sequence revives doubts about the strength of the rebound.

Prediction markets are sharply revising the risk to the downside

In the prediction markets, the scenario of Bitcoin below $55,000 is no longer a fringe hypothesis. “Bitcoin price has a 65% to 71% chance of falling below $55,000 by December 31”according to prediction markets, links this increased risk to a market that lacks bullish catalysts and remains exposed to macroeconomic uncertainties.

This $55,000 level weighs particularly heavily in the debate as it marks a break from the levels seen earlier in the year. Bitcoin’s 2026 low is currently $59,940, reached on February 6, and the last time the BTC/USD pair dipped below $55,000 was in February 2024. In other words, this dip is now massively valued by traders on Polymarket and Kalshi.

• The same market gives a 59% chance of falling below $50,000 and a 46% chance of falling to $45,000 before the end of the year;

• On Kalshi, traders see a 71% chance of a return below $60,000, a 65% chance below $55,000, and a 31% chance of a drop to $40,000;

Strategies are holding firm, ETFs are falling into the red again

The strategic firm is often seen as a barometer of institutional beliefs about Bitcoin. The recent decline to $69,000 thus brought the price below the firm’s average purchase price, which was set at $75,696.

Nevertheless, punters do not count on a quick capitulation. The probability that the strategy will sell bitcoins in 2026 remains below 15%, which Polymarket more accurately estimates at 13% for the December 31, 2026 deadline.

At the same time, traders continue to bet on continued purchases with a nearly 96% chance that the company will announce more than 800,000 BTC held by the end of 2026, as Michael Saylor’s company already holds 761,000 BTC after buying 22,337 BTC for roughly $1.6 billion.

The third highlighted signal concerns US spot bitcoin ETFs. They were back in the red this Wednesday. Data from Farside Investors confirms that as of March 19, the daily balance is -$90.2 million, with -38.3 million for IBIT, -26.0 million for FBTC, -17.2 million for BITB and -15.2 million for ARKB.

In addition, the segment’s largest ETF saw outflows of $34 million as market sentiment dipped again “extreme fear”. This sequence alone does not prove that a drop below $55,000 is guaranteed. However, it shows that as predictive markets reinforce their bearish scenario, peripheral signals are moving in the same direction.

Bitcoin is caught between market caution and a lack of catalysts. The Fed is keeping rates on hold amid geopolitical tensions, a decision that encourages wait-and-see attitudes, dampens the rebound and leaves downside risk in the middle of the game.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.

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The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.