Bitcoin in danger This rare signal warns traders

Under pressure from mainstream markets, the leading cryptocurrency just hit a weekly low in a climate dominated by soaring oil prices and geopolitical tensions. This move goes beyond a simple technical fix and brings darker scenarios to life. Some analysts are already talking about a return to $10,000, reigniting the debate about the crypto market’s vulnerability to macroeconomic shocks.

Bitcoin weakened by macroeconomic instability

Bitcoin briefly fell below $66,000 and hit a weekly low thanks to market pressure. Several converging signals explain this decline:

• Oil rose to $114 a barrel amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz;
• The Nasdaq fell 2%, suggesting a flight to safer assets;
• Over 400 million liquidations were recorded in the crypto market within 24 hours.

The move is part of a broader dynamic of divesting risk assets, where bitcoin is now closely correlated with traditional markets.

The prevailing nervousness was also reflected in the reactions of the public. The Kobeissi Letter thus described the situation as “the most confusing phase of the Iran war so far”highlighting the extreme uncertainty associated with the geopolitical context.

Donald Trump’s intervention, which disappointed investors, failed to calm the markets. Meanwhile, the prospect of inflation reaching 3.6% if oil prices remain high is adding to concerns about the macroeconomic environment.

Analysts revived the $10,000 scenario

Beyond the market’s immediate reaction, some voices are trying to put bitcoin’s trajectory into a longer-term perspective. Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, mentions a possible return to levels well below current prices.

He estimates “that before the biggest liquidity injection in history in 2020-2021, Bitcoin was trading around $10,000 and may be heading back there”. This statement is based on the idea that the exceptional liquidity conditions that supported the market after 2020 could reverse.

This $10,000 mark corresponds to a historical zone associated in particular with the development of Bitcoin futures markets, often considered a point of balance before a massive monetary expansion. McGlone’s analysis suggests a return to valuations more in line with pre-cycle dynamics in a context where overall liquidity is declining.

This reading opens up a general debate about the current nature of Bitcoin. Whether it is a speculative asset sensitive to macroeconomic conditions or a store of value capable of withstanding external shocks, its placement is debatable. If energy tensions and inflation persist, markets could continue to reduce their risk exposure. On the contrary, a calming of the global context could quickly reverse this trend. Between these two scenarios, Bitcoin is now evolving under the direct influence of the global macroeconomic balance.

Luc Jose A.

A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.

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The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.