21:05 ▪
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min read ▪ by
For Willy Woo, Bitcoin’s bounce doesn’t mean the end of the bear market. An on-chain analyst believes a bull trap is forming, while BTC may not have bottomed yet. His reading is based on liquidity, as the current move looks less like a sustained reversal than a simple market spurt.
In short
- Willy Woo warns that Bitcoin’s rebound may just be a false start.
- For the analyst, the bear market remains well established and BTC may not have bottomed yet.
- The recent rally is more of a technical jump than a true cycle change.
- Bitcoin may have another weak move before a stronger recovery.
Willy Woo sees a bull trap before the real day
Willy Woo believes that Bitcoin could experience a short-term recovery capable of disappointing the market before a new phase of decline. In his report published on Saturday, the analyst mentions a “Bull Trap Forming” and specifies that this movement may take time “until the end of April”. He adds that his reading is based on liquidity conditions, not just a simple price level. Woo also states that he is happy to change his mind if capital returns massively with a matching profile of long-term investors.
Subsequently, Woo describes bitcoin as “firmly established in the midst of its bear market” from the point of view of long-term liquidity. He recalls that after periods of sharp decline, BTC often tends to move sideways before trying to rally towards resistance zones. This is exactly the type of configuration that increases the risk of a false restart, where a technical bounce can be too quickly interpreted as a trend reversal.
- Bitcoin is down 46.82% from its all-time high in October at $126,000;
- BTC is currently trading at $66,974;
- In 30 days, the asset still showed an increase of 3.74%;
- Woo believes that this level does not yet correspond to a market bottom.
Other market signals reinforce caution
Next to this value, other indicators point in the same direction. Santiment notes that small holders are starting to buy again below $70,000, while the whales are selling aggressively. The platform summarizes this imbalance with a clear formula: “The fix isn’t over yet”. Its tracking also shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC sold about 66% of the bitcoins accumulated after the move to $74,000. This dynamic lends weight to Woo’s warning. The market can still produce bounces without the clearing process being completed.
The atmosphere is further hardening thanks to observations from other analysts. CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin remains in a bear market despite the recent rally with a Bull Score of 10 out of 100, described as deeply bearish. For his part, Benjamin Cowen sees 2026 as a bear market year and sees no new all-time highs during this period. Additionally, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index returned to the extreme fear zone at 18, after briefly rising to 25 a few days earlier. Although Woo notes that investor flows have been “still recovering” since mid-February, all these signals paint a market where the recovery remains fragile, questionable and vulnerable to another episode of weakness.
The signal remains fragile. For Willy Woo, the observed bounce is not enough to invalidate the underlying trend, while the price of Bitcoin continues to evolve in a tight market. The future will depend less on a one-time spike than on a sustained return of liquidity and confidence.
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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
