17:05 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Arthur Hayes surprises the Bitcoin market. One of its most vocal supporters now explains that he wouldn’t pay $1 for BTC at the current price. His idea is not a rejection of Bitcoin. It’s strategic waiting. The real buy signal for him will come primarily from the return of global liquidity with a more accommodative Fed and, above all, the resumption of money printing.
In short
- Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin but refuses to buy now.
- A more accommodative turn of the Fed and a clear return of liquidity await.
- In the short term, he considers a drop below $60,000 still possible.
Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin, but not now
The focal point is simple. Arthur Hayes is a long-term fix on Bitcoin. Mainly he says that timing matters more than storytelling. In the podcast Stories of Coins published this week, states that in the short term he would rather wait than buy BTC immediately. This deposit comes at a time when retail investors are buying while whales are easing their positions.
Its logic is based on the old market mechanism. Bitcoin often responds very well when central banks inject liquidity. Hayes summed it up bluntly: Bitcoin does not benefit from war, but from printing money. This nuance changes everything. It shifts the debate from geopolitics to monetary policy.
In other words, Hayes isn’t denying Bitcoin’s potential. He simply believes that the market may still go through a phase of tension before it really takes off. For him, the motto is clear: patience before condemnation. It’s a cool, almost uncomfortable stance, especially coming from a profile often seen as ultra bullish.
Bitcoin market remains suspended due to Fed
This reading gains weight in the current context. Bitcoin is trading around $70,000, with several market sources putting it at between about $69,900 and $70,000 on March 11, 2026. So we are far from a complete collapse, but still well below the peak of the recent market narrative at $126,000.
The problem for Hayes is that the Federal Reserve has yet to send the signal he is waiting for. As long as monetary policy remains tight, Bitcoin may remain nervous. Risky assets hate currency uncertainty. They like abundant liquidity. This is the common thread that guides his entire analytical framework.
This approach has one advantage. It avoids confusing macro beliefs with haste. Many investors remain convinced that Bitcoin will eventually rise, but the path matters. Hayes notes that an asset can have a bullish future and remain vulnerable for weeks, even months.
Geopolitical tensions may still shake BTC
Hayes adds another risk factor. If the conflict between the United States and Iran continues, it could trigger a massive selloff in stocks and Bitcoin, he said. This point deserves attention. Bitcoin doesn’t always act as an immediate safe haven. During intense stress episodes, it may initially be sold with the rest of the market.
This is where his message becomes more disturbing. It does not rule out a return under $60,000. He even mentions the risk of cascading liquidations if the pressure accelerates. This scenario is not his main forecast for the full year, but he considers it credible in the short term.
Hayes is implicitly reminding us of a truth the market is quick to forget: Bitcoin loves liquidity, but hates phases when the dollar, rates and fear dominate at the same time. In these moments, heroic stories hold up less well than cash balances and margin calls.
The most interesting part may be here. Arthur Hayes is still sticking to his goal of $250,000 for 2026. This may seem contradictory. It’s not actually inconsistent. It simply separates two horizons. He sees a fragile market in the short term. In the medium term, he continues to bet on the return of money creation and thus a new bullish leg for BTC.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been constantly researching the topic. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all developments focused on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently produce high-quality work that reflects the state of the industry as a whole.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
