At $67,200, Bitcoin still hasn’t passed one brutal mining test

The rise of Bitcoin does not solve the economic equation of mining. For Riot Platforms, price increases cover the electricity bill without absorbing any fees or amortization. This gap brings the debate back to a more challenging question: at what price does a mining company actually become profitable again? The analysis distinguishes three thresholds, from energy costs to the accounting result.

Three profitability frontiers, one same finding

Bitcoin mining costs can no longer be summed up in a single number. Several layers of profitability need to be distinguished, depending on whether we are looking only at electricity, operating costs or the accounting result. When applied to Riot Platforms, this reasoning leads to a more nuanced reading of Bitcoin’s rebound: at $67,200, the group covers the first threshold but remains underwater at subsequent ones.

The mining company model is detailed based on current network conditions and data from Riot publications. Thus, a bitcoin difficulty of 145,042,165,424,850, a block reward of 3,125 BTC, a modern ASIC efficiency of about 17 to 19 J/TH, and an industrial electricity price in Texas near $0.0667 per kWh are maintained. Transaction fees are not included, but are around 0.02 BTC per block.

• At the current Riot price “passes the first profitability threshold but fails to reach the other two”. This sentence summarizes the entire demonstration: the company crosses the electrical threshold without reaching the operating or accounting thresholds;

• The electrical profitability threshold is $64,635 per BTC. At $67,200, this leaves an energy margin of $2,565 per Bitcoin mined;

• Adding in operating costs without electricity, estimated at $9,809 per BTC from Riot’s documents, the operating margin drops to -$7,243;

• With a depreciation layer estimated at $39,687 per BTC, the book result flips to -$46,930: “bitcoin production costs are not summed up in a single number” ;

• The model also shows its mean metrics: 622.95 sextillion hashes per block, 199.34 sextillion hashes per BTC, and 969.04 MWh of energy per Bitcoin produced.

Price scenarios outline further reading of the sector

The second part of the analysis tests the sensitivity of the model to several price levels. In a bearish scenario at $49,000, Riot remains negative overall, with an energy margin of -$15,635, an operating margin of -$25,443, and a book profit of -$65,130 per BTC.

In the scenario of a recovery to $80,000, the group will cross the operating threshold with a margin of $5,557 per BTC, while the accounting line remains negative at -$34,130. So, “mining companies can show positive profitability on the electricity-only item while posting impaired operating or accounting results”.

Assuming Riot’s hashrate increases from 38.5 EH/s to 45 EH/s by March 31, 2026, then stabilizes at that level, analysts estimate a cumulative production of 15,000 BTC across all scenarios. At $67,200, cumulative energy margin again becomes positive at $39,286,667, but operating margin remains negative at -$110,925,420 and book profit at -$718,705,391.

At $80,000, cumulative operating margin turns positive at $85,099,338, while accounting profit remains negative at -$522,680,632. A full shift only appears in the $126,000 scenario, with a cumulative accounting profit of $181,783,343.

At this stage, the price of Bitcoin alone is not enough to rebalance the mining companies. Riot’s case shows that between energy costs, operating fees and depreciation, profitability remains fragile. The recovery of the market is improving the situation without yet filling all the gaps in the sector.

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The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.