10:05 AM ▪
4
min read ▪ by
Bitcoin falters and receives a brutal shock: almost $600 billion is now unrealized losses. At $66,000, the market reveals a fragility rarely seen at this scale. A significant portion of the supply is under pressure, while some long-term investors are beginning to retreat. This phase between capitulation and exhaustion of demand represents a turning point in current market dynamics. It remains to be seen whether this tension signals a simple adjustment… or a deeper cycle change.
In short
- Bitcoin is trading around $66,000, exposing the market to nearly $600 billion in unrealized losses.
- A significant portion of the supply, representing more than 44%, is at a loss, revealing strong selling pressure.
- Long-term holders begin to retreat, marking a capitulation phase that rarely occurs outside of periods of stress.
- The market enters a dynamic redistribution where assets move from struggling investors to new buyers.
Market under pressure: unrealized losses and surrenders
Bitcoin’s correction has gained in size. The price has fallen to around $66,928, down 47% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
This decline puts a significant part of the market in trouble, as the following figures show:
- About 8.8 million BTC are held at a loss;
- Nearly $598.7 billion in unrealized losses;
- More than 44% of circulating supplies affected.
Glassnode highlights the magnitude of this situation: “Historically, resolving an oversupply of this magnitude requires a significant redistribution of bitcoins, from investors selling at a loss to new buyers ready to enter at lower prices.”.
At the same time, long-term holders are beginning to back down under pressure. An active capitulation phase is observed with about $200 million in realized losses, a signal rarely seen outside of periods of intense stress.
These elements indicate an advanced stage of market tension. The combination of massive unrealized losses and realized sales by supposedly strong investors marks a regime change. Such a configuration has historically preceded redistributive phases where assets move from weakened hands to new entrants.
Falling demand and the absence of investors
In addition to the losses, the data reveal a deterioration in demand. As of the end of 2025, the market is showing continued contraction with an estimated negative apparent demand of -1,623 BTC. Glassnode points out that “the persistent decline in demand (…) confirms that the market is still in the distribution phase. In other words, outflows dominate and new buyers try to absorb supply.”
This weakness is accompanied by a significant shift away from institutional and US investors. Coinbase Premium remains negative, signaling a lack of appetite in the United States, while bitcoin-related investments produce a record $194 million in net outflows for the week. Investors with exposure through ETFs, with an average cost of around $83,408, also face pressure, exacerbating the overall imbalance.
In this context, the market appears to be engaged in a classic redistributive phase of bearish cycles. The absence of strong buyers combined with the gradual capitulation of long-time holders could prolong this phase. However, the return of structured demand and investors able to absorb supply appears to be a necessary condition for BTC price stabilization and consideration of a new cycle.
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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be construed as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
