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min read ▪ by
The current signal on Bitcoin is quite clear: long-term holders are selling less, and this is reducing some of the pressure weighing on the market. VanEck talks about a “potentially constructive” bias, which doesn’t mean immediate euphoria, but rather ground that stops giving buyers’ feet.
In short
- Long-term holders reduce their positions less.
- Miners remain under pressure without selling aggressively for now.
- The bias becomes more constructive, but the macro still holds control.
Old bitcoins move less
This change comes in an increasingly nervous market. Bitcoin is trading around $71,000 on March 20, 2026 as the macro environment remains tense following the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and rising geopolitical uncertainties. In other words, the base is getting a little better, but the ceiling hasn’t gone away.
The central point of VanEck’s report is simple: older wallets spend less bitcoin. Transfer volume fell month-on-month across all coin age groups, indicating that the most experienced players are splitting their holdings less than before.
In the same movement, the active supply held by long-term investors increased from 31% to 30%. It’s not a collapse. Rather, it is a discrete, almost silent slide, which suggests that a slightly smaller proportion of old stock is circulating in the short term.
This kind of signal matters because the Bitcoin market often reverses due to wear, not spectacle. When the oldest hands sell less, the distribution pressure decreases. This does not guarantee an immediate increase, but removes the real weight on the supply side.
Miners are not panicking yet
Another important lesson concerns Bitcoin miners. Their economic situation has worsened over the past month: total revenue has fallen by 11% and the sector’s shares have lost around 7%. However, their outflows to exchanges only increased by 1% in BTC.
This detail deserves a lot of attention. Miners are not in massive surrender mode. They remain under pressure, but have yet to translate that pressure into waves of brutal selling. That’s one less potential drag on the short-term market.
However, the nuance is harsher. VanEck estimates that miners hold about 684,000 BTC without Bitcoin wallets attributed to Satoshi, a year-over-year decrease of about 0.5%, while about 164,000 new BTC were mined in the same period. Simply put, the sector has almost covered its costs by selling most of the new issue. And if the price falls sustainably, this restraint may not last.
To calm the blockchain in a more mature market
The report also shows a significant slowdown in activity in the chain. Transfer volume fell by 31%, daily fees by 27%, active addresses by 5% and average fees by 40% over 30 days. Only the total number of transactions increased slightly.
Taken in isolation, this picture can appear bearish. But VanEck offers a more nuanced reading: a growing share of activity is migrating off-chain towards listed products, derivatives and other financial channels that don’t necessarily create direct settlements on the Bitcoin blockchain. The market is becoming more institutional and therefore sometimes less visible only through historical network indicators.
However, for this support to turn into a clear recovery, the macro economy must stop sending conflicting signals. Because nothing is decided yet: Polymarket and Kalshi still see Bitcoin below $55,000 by December.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been constantly researching the topic. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all developments focused on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently produce high-quality work that reflects the state of the industry as a whole.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
