Sat March 14, 2026 ▪
5
min read ▪ by
Bitcoin doesn’t necessarily lack power. What he mainly lacks is a clear signal. According to Glassnode, this signal comes from a simple but incredibly useful indicator: the proportion of bitcoins held by short-term investors who are still in profit. As long as this spread remains below 50%, the idea of a sustained rebound remains fragile.
In short
- Bitcoin is still looking for a confirmation signal.
- Glassnode tracks the return of short-term holders to profit.
- Above 50%, a sustained bounce becomes more plausible.
Why does this 50% threshold matter so much?
Less than half of the supply held by short-term holders, investors who entered less than 155 days ago, is currently in unrealized gains. For Glassnode, this blocking reflects a hesitant market. In short, BTC may bounce back temporarily, but it still lacks the psychological base needed to trigger a strong recovery.
The Bitcoin market often operates at psychological tipping points. The 50% threshold is one of them. When more than half of the short holders return to profit, the mood changes. Selling pressure is easing and the appetite for risk is gradually returning.
Conversely, when this share remains below half, a large proportion of new entrants hold positions at a loss. This detail has a lot of weight. These investors are often the most sensitive to volatility. They sell faster, cut losses earlier and react more strongly to market shocks.
Glassnode points out that this situation generally reflects still timid demand. It is not necessarily a signal of collapse. Rather, it is a sign of a market that has yet to gain real confidence. Until this confidence is restored among new entrants, Bitcoin will remain vulnerable to incomplete recoveries.
Short-term holders remain the nervous link of the market
In on-chain analysis, short-term holders occupy a special place. They often absorb the most brutal variations. They enter a phase of enthusiasm and then test their belief once the price falls back. Their behavior thus provides a fairly clear overview of the immediate health of the market.
When these players are mostly in green, the atmosphere changes quickly. The market is breathing easier. Profit taking still exists, but occurs within a healthier structure. The price can then rest on a more stable basis, as not all new entrants will be stuck below their purchase price.
However, when many of these holders remain underwater, Bitcoin advances with an invisible brake. Every rise becomes suspect. Each bounce triggers a relief sale. This mechanism does not prevent occasional progress, but it clearly complicates the construction of a clean and sustainable bull trend.
What the market has already shown in the past
The value of this indicator comes primarily from its history. Glassnode points out that when short-holders’ share of profits rose above 50% in the past, it often preceded a more plausible recovery phase. This is how the market reacted during the recovery in the first half of 2025.
At the time, a return to profitability among recent entrants not only improved sentiment but also served as fuel to restore broader momentum. Bitcoin then extends its rise by reaching new highs. So it is not an isolated technical detail. It’s a behavioral pivot.
However, one should avoid magical thinking. A break above 50% does not automatically guarantee a price explosion. On the other hand, the absence of this signal makes the recovery much less reliable. That’s the whole nuance. This indicator does not promise a rally. It mainly helps distinguish a true turnaround from a simple spurt.
Can Bitcoin Bounce Right Now?
Bitcoin recently tried to return to $72,000 after a 3% gain in 24 hours. This move shows that the market is trying to regain momentum. But for the rebound to become more than just an episode, we’ll have to see if short-holder profitability actually follows suit.
This is often a trap of nervous markets. The price of Bitcoin rises before the structure is fully repaired. This gives encouraging short-term signals, then the momentum weakens. Without a clear improvement in the situation for short-term holders, the risk of a technical recovery remains, not the recovery seen so far.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has been constantly researching the topic. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all developments focused on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently produce high-quality work that reflects the state of the industry as a whole.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
