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On-chain data suggests a possible upside move for Ethereum. Analysis of investor accumulation reveals an area of low resistance that could pave the way to $2,800 if certain technical levels are breached. This setting is based on the distribution of the purchase price of ETH holders. However, derivatives markets are sending a more cautious signal. Between accumulating momentum and trader hesitation, Ethereum is entering a crucial phase of its market cycle.
In short
- On-chain data suggests that Ethereum could benefit from a bullish corridor up to $2,800 due to an area of low resistance above current levels.
- An analysis of the spread of investors’ buying prices reveals a low concentration of supply between $2,200 and $2,800, which could facilitate a quick rally if the resistance is broken.
- Several technical indicators, including cost-based clusters and the 200-day moving average, reinforce this potential bullish scenario for ETH.
- Activity in derivatives markets is showing more cautious dynamics, despite the recent increase in open interest in futures contracts.
A sparse supply zone paves the way to $2,800
On-chain data suggests that Ethereum could benefit from relatively clear headroom above current levels as the cryptocurrency accelerates its transition to quantum resilience. Indeed, an analysis of the distribution of investors’ purchase prices shows a low concentration of supply between $2,200 and $2,800, which means that few holders have acquired ETH in this zone.
Really, “Once Ether breaks through this zone, a lack of supply could allow for a quick advance to $2,800”.
Several technical elements explain this potential scenario:
- Low density of accumulation between $2,200 and $2,800 reducing potential selling pressure;
- Analysis based on cost-based clusters, a metric that identifies the zones where investors bought their ETH;
- In the absence of historical buyers in this zone, intermediate resistance will be reduced;
- The $2,800 mark also corresponds to the 200-day simple moving average, a technical indicator closely watched by traders.
This setup creates a relatively open technical corridor above the current market, which is likely to favor a quick move if the $2,200 resistance is broken.
Derivatives markets cautious despite bullish signals
While chain data paints a favorable scenario, activity in derivatives markets is more nuanced. Open interest in Ether futures climbed from $9 billion to $10.9 billion, a sign of renewed speculative activity as the price moved towards the $2,200 zone. This increase reflects increased trader participation, often seen during periods of volatility.
However, this enthusiasm quickly faded. After testing this resistance, open interest decreased by approximately 6%, indicating that some participants preferred to reduce exposure or take profits. At the same time, the data shows that 59.4% of futures positions on Binance remain bullish, a relatively balanced distribution that does not reflect a massive market consensus.
These elements paint a more complex context for Ether. Accumulation indicators suggest that a quick move towards $2,800 in ETH price remains possible if the current resistance is indeed broken. However, caution in derivatives markets reveals a phase of consolidation ahead of any acceleration. The trajectory of ETH will now depend on the ability of buyers to turn this technical potential into real market power.
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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of the blockchain consultant certification issued by Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of the potential of blockchain to transform many sectors of the economy, I committed myself to raising awareness and informing the general public about this ever-evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and take advantage of the opportunities it offers. I strive every day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, convey the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and social issues of this ongoing revolution.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
