19:05 ▪
4
min read ▪ by
The script seems huge. However, Bitwise argues that a $1 million bitcoin does not necessarily mean complete dominance over gold. According to Matt Hougan, the company’s chief investment officer, bitcoin would need to capture about 17% of the global store-of-value market within a decade to reach that symbolic mark.
In short
- Bitwise estimates that a $1 million bitcoin does not require complete dominance over gold.
- According to Matt Hougan, 17% of the world’s store of value could last a decade.
- The scenario remains credible on paper, but still depends on the actual convergence between Bitcoin and the safe harbor role.
Bitwise is reframing the Bitcoin debate
The central idea is simple. Many analysts consider the $1 million target unrealistic, as they assume that Bitcoin would have to swallow nearly half of gold’s current capitalization. Bitwise rightly believes that this calculation starts on the wrong footing.
For Matt Hougan, it’s a mistake to see the store of value market as a fixed block. Nevertheless, this market is growing over time. It is driven by very specific factors: public debt, geopolitical uncertainty, loose monetary policy and the search for assets that can preserve purchasing power.
In this reading, bitcoin may not “take the place” of today’s gold. They mainly have to win their share of the market, which could become much larger. In other words, the bar remains high, but it is no longer absurd. That’s the whole nuance of Bitwise’s reasoning.
A much bigger store of value tomorrow
Bitwise notes that the capitalization of gold has grown from around $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $38 trillion today, representing an average annual growth of about 13%. If this momentum continues, the global store of value market could reach $121 trillion in a decade.
At this level, Bitcoin wouldn’t need to dominate half the field. A 17% share would be enough to justify the $1 million per unit price, according to Hougan. This number is striking because it transforms a maximalist fantasy into a more defensible market hypothesis.
This consideration also has a psychological effect. It moves the conversation. We are no longer talking about a sudden shock between Bitcoin and gold, but a gradual shift in the universe where investors are looking for several safe havens at once. In this setup, Bitcoin doesn’t need to be at the top alone to be worth much more than it is today.
Bitcoin: drivers designed by Bitwise
Bitwise bases its thesis on several already visible trends. The company cites an increase in institutional investment, the role of ETFs, the potential interest of sovereign wealth funds and the gradual increase in the allocation of bitcoins in portfolios.
This point deserves attention. The Bitwise bet is not just a theoretical calculation. It has to do with the idea that Bitcoin continues to gain legitimacy in traditional finance. This movement remains uneven, sometimes slow, but it exists. And it is exactly this type of adoption that can permanently change the perceived value of an asset.
In other words, Bitwise is not selling any miracle. The manager offers a trajectory. He envisions bitcoin continuing its transformation: less of a purely speculative asset, more of a legacy tool for investors looking to diversify their exposure to currency and geopolitical risk.
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Lydia, a teacher and IT engineer, discovers Bitcoin in 2022 and dives into the world of cryptocurrencies. It popularizes complex topics, deciphers Web3 challenges and defends the vision of an open, inclusive and decentralized digital future.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be taken as investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.
